Teaching scenario planning : lessons from practice in academe and business
Wright, G., Cairns, G. and Goodwin, P., 2009. Teaching scenario planning : lessons from practice in academe and business. European Journal of Operational Research, 194 (1), pp. 323-335.
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In this paper, we engage with O'Brien's [O'Brien, F.A., 2004. Scenario planning - lessons for practice from teaching and learning. European Journal of Operational Research 152, 709-722] identification of both pitfalls in teaching scenario planning and proposed remedies for these. We consider these remedies in relation to our own experience - based on our practice in both the academic and business arenas - and we highlight further pitfalls and proposed remedies. Finally, we propose the use of "hard" multi-attribute decision analysis as a complement to "soft" scenario planning, in order to allow a more formal method of strategy evaluation against a range of constructed scenarios, This approach is intended to remedy biases that are associated with holistic evaluations - such as lexicographic ranking - where undue attention is paid to particular strategic objectives at the expense of others. From this discussion, we seek to contribute to cumulative refinement of the scenario process.
|Creators||Wright, G., Cairns, G. and Goodwin, P.|
|Uncontrolled Keywords||strategic planning, decision making, teaching, planning, formal methods, decision theory|
|Departments||School of Management|
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