Predicting future UK housing stock and carbon emissions

Reference:

Natarajan, S. and Levermore, G. J., 2007. Predicting future UK housing stock and carbon emissions. Energy Policy, 35 (11), pp. 5719-5727.

Related documents:

Official URL:

http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2007.05.034

Abstract

This paper presents a novel method for exploring future transformations in the UK housing stock. The method is shown to be more robust and faster than existing methods through various tests. A Java-based implementation of the method in a new model of the UK housing stock, DECarb, is examined using a back-cast scenario from 1970 to 1996. The results show an average difference of −5.4% between predicted and actual energy demand. Comparison with predicted carbon emissions from the BRE's BREHOMES model shows a difference of around −0.9% for the same period. These results suggest that DECarb is likely to be an effective tool in examining future scenarios since the same objects and processes used in back-casting in the model are also used in forecasting. The model has an open framework and could therefore significantly benefit ongoing domestic and non-domestic climate futures research.

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