Predicting crashes in a model of evolving networks
Krause, A., 2004. Predicting crashes in a model of evolving networks. Complexity, 9 (4), pp. 24-30.
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We consider an evolving network of interacting species which exhibits self-organization. The system is characterized by repeated crashes in which a large number of species are extinct and subsequent recoveries. We investigate the macroscopic properties of this system before such crashes, concentrating on the variance of the relative population sizes of species and its evolution over time. A simple score function is constructed to determine the probability of a crash within a certain time interval to be used as a predictor for crashes
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