Research

Intervention Time Series Analysis of Crime Rates


Reference:

Vujić, S. and Koopman, S. J., 2007. Intervention Time Series Analysis of Crime Rates. In: Conference on Contemporary Challenges of Theory and Practice in Economics, 2007-09-27 - 2007-09-28, Faculty of Economics, University of Belgrade.

Related documents:

[img]
Preview
PDF (VujicKoopman_conferenceproceedings_2007.pdf) - Requires a PDF viewer such as GSview, Xpdf or Adobe Acrobat Reader
Download (223kB) | Preview

    Abstract

    The Commonwealth of Virginia abolished parole and reformed sentencing for all felony offenders committed on or after January 1, 1995. We examine the impact of this legislation on reported crime rates using different time series approaches. In particular, structural time series models are considered as an alternative to the Box-Jenkins ARIMA models that form the standard time series approach to intervention analysis. Limited support for the deterrent impact of parole abolition and sentence reform is obtained using univariate modelling devices, even after including unemployment as an explanatory variable. Finally, the flexibility of structural time series models is illustrated by presenting a multivariate analysis that provides some additional evidence of the deterrent impact of the new legislation.

    Details

    Item Type Conference or Workshop Items (Paper)
    CreatorsVujić, S.and Koopman, S. J.
    DepartmentsFaculty of Humanities & Social Sciences > Economics
    RefereedNo
    StatusPublished
    ID Code29021

    Export

    Actions (login required)

    View Item

    Document Downloads

    More statistics for this item...